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Performance Updates

 

IMPORTANT: Our newsletter is for entertainment purposes only. Sports betting should be a fun hobby and you should only use money you can 100% afford to lose. If you're looking to 'make money' then check out 'Real Vision' and study macro economics. If you're like us and enjoy taking a mathematical approach to finding an edge then you'll fit right in.

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Underdogs Shortlist

This is an automatically generated shortlist based on price action, rate of change, volume that looks to identify good value outsiders.

  • In 14/18 games the favourite didn't win. In effect, backing the outsider with a +0.5 handicap was correct 78% of the time
  • In only 2/18 games the favoruite won by more than 1 goal. In effect, backing the outsider with a +1 handicap was correct 89% of the time
  • Looking at a +0.75 handicap would have meant backing the outsider was 78% correct, 11% half incorrect and 11% fully incorrect 

Draws Shortlist

This is an automatically generated shortlist based on price action, rate of change, volume that looks to identify games that should be close and in effect good potential for a draw. Results are just level 1 unit per selection.

  • In week 1: +3.60 units 
  • In week 2: -2.80 units
  • In week 3: +0.95 units
  • Overall: +1.75 units

Closing Line System (our flagship strategy)

First a little intro to outline 'closing line value' for those not familiar with it (I'm sure you are!)...

"Closing line value is the price a bettor gets relative to the closing price. If they beat the market, they got positive CLV. If the market beat them, they got negative CLV. Beating the market means getting a better price than the closing price."

  • Beat the closing line: 60% (in theory 'good' value)
  • Level with the closing line: 30% (in theory 'fair' value)
  • Negative with the closing line: 10% (in theory 'bad' value)
  • Yield (plan 1/flat): +14%
  • Yield (plan 2/weighted): +21%
We have decided to focus performance on 'beating the closing line'. Beating the closing line means that we are getting good value selections. Where we are level with the closing line we are roughly 'fair value' and so we might expect to break even on those over time (we're happy to take a chance on getting on the right side of variance :D). We want to avoid negative closing lines. 
 
 

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