Closing Line System Performance
Here’s how our system has performed to date:
First a little intro to outline 'closing line value' for those not familiar with it (I'm sure you are!)...
"Closing line value is the price a bettor gets relative to the closing price. If they beat the market, they got positive CLV. If the market beat them, they got negative CLV. Beating the market means getting a better price than the closing price."
- Beat the closing line: 63% (in theory 'good' value)
- Level with the closing line: 25% (in theory 'fair' value)
- Negative with the closing line: 13% (in theory 'bad' value)
- Yield (allocation plan 1): +2.84%
- Yield (allocation plan 2): +0.61%
We have decided to focus performance on 'beating the closing line'. Beating the closing line means that we are getting good value selections. Where we are level with the closing line we are roughly 'fair value' and so we might expect to break even on those over time (we're happy to take a chance on getting on the right side of variance :D). We want to avoid negative closing lines.
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